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theory for why Africans (including warlords who reigned supreme while not ruling) didn't do anything to help slavery except when forced to by evil Europeansthis is the most inane mischaracterisation of my arguments I have ever seen, and I will as a reminder state my real
There's plenty of blame to go around and both European agents and African leaders and collaborators will be the targets. However, generally speaking and over a long time, more blame is to be apportioned to Europeans and less blame is to be apportioned to Africans, because of the different situations these people could act as moral agents. When, for instance, you consider what motivated the different actors you'll find it is easier to criticize the Europeans because of the greed that drove them and their disrespect for local authority, costums and law, than it is to criticize the African elites and communities which found themselves in a situation of societies and trade networks crumbling around them and was motivated to a lesser extent by greed and more by self preservation, which in many cases (directly or indirectly) dictated the necessity of them to collaborate.There you have my real opinion and not your bad representation of it. And please take note of the words "many", "most", "to a larger degree", because by using them I'm negating all claims of "all", "every" and "entirely". We're done here, have a good day.
Country | U.S.A. | Germany | India | Australia | Canada | U.K. | Bazil | France | Spain | Sweden |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Percentage | 33.1 % | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% |
Gender | Male | Female | Other |
---|---|---|---|
Percentage | 88.6% | 8.9% | 2.5% |
Both | Manga Only | Anime Only |
---|---|---|
49.8% | 46.2% | 4% |
1 Year or less | 2 years | 3 years | 4 years | 5 years | 6 years | 7 years | 8 years | 9 years | 10 years or more |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 4.6% | 38.5% |
N°1 | Top 3 | Top 5 | Top 10 | Bellow Top 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|
70.1% | 21.6% | 5% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
No | Manga Volumes | Figurines | Clothes | Poster | DVD/Blu-ray |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
44.2% | 33.1% | 24.5% | 18.4% | 17.2% | 6.3% |
Mobile or Apps | Both | Desktop |
---|---|---|
50.6% | 29.5% | 19.9% |
Redesign | Old version |
---|---|
63.3% | 36.7% |
Never | Rarely | Sometimes | Often | Very often (Daily) |
---|---|---|---|---|
67.1% | 24.7% | 5.6% | 1.6% | 1% |
Never | Rarely | Sometimes | Often | Very often (Daily) |
---|---|---|---|---|
41.2% | 32.7% | 17.6% | 6.7% | 1.8% |
Never | Rarely | Sometimes | Often | Very often (Daily) |
---|---|---|---|---|
49.1% | 17.1% | 13.7% | 8% | 12% |
Theories/Discussion | Fanart | Polls | Cosplay | Merchandise | Youtube Video | Media (Photo and Video) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
89.6% | 47.9% | 19.7% | 16.7% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 11.7% |
Youtuber Video | Merchandise | Cosplay | Media | Fanart | Polls | Theories/Discussion |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
36.7% | 35.1% | 31% | 15.7% | 15.3% | 6.9% | 4.2% |
No | Yes |
---|---|
63.4% | 36.6% |
No | Yes |
---|---|
86.7% | 13.3% |
Luffy | Zoro | Nami | Usopp | Sanji | Chopper | Robin | Franky | Brook | Jinbe |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
34.8% | 29.1% | 1.3% | 6% | 10.1% | 1.8% | 6.5% | 2.4% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
Luffy | Zoro | Nami | Usopp | Sanji | Chopper | Robin | Franky | Brook | Jinbe |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.8% | 3.3% | 10.6% | 15% | 6.5% | 21.3% | 4% | 19.2% | 8.3% | 11.1% |
Robin | Brook | Sanji | Chopper | Nami | Other |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
50.9% | 25% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 1.9% |
Red Hair | Whitebeard | Big Mom | Beast | Blackbeard |
---|---|---|---|---|
34.7% | 31.1% | 14% | 10.6% | 9.5% |
Garp | Aokiji | Fujitora | Kirazu | Akainu | Sengoku | Green Bull |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
28.4% | 28.2% | 20.8% | 15.8% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
Law | Kid | Bonney | Urouge | Bege | X Drake | Hawkins | Apoo | Killer |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63.5% | 12.4% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% |
Position | Story arc | Result |
---|---|---|
N°1 | Enies Lobby | 43.3% |
N°2 | Marineford | 39.8% |
N°3 | Wano | 30.2% |
N°4 | Water 7 | 23.3% |
N°5 | Impel Down | 19.6% |
Position | Story arc | Result |
---|---|---|
N°1 | Long Ring Long Land Arc | 37.2% |
N°2 | Fishmen Island | 16.9% |
N°3 | Syrup Village | 15.8% |
N°4 | Thriller Bark | 10.1% |
N°5 | Punk Hazard | 9.7% |
Position | Cover Story | Result |
---|---|---|
N°1 | Enel's Great Space Operations | 24% |
N°2 | From the Decks of the World : "The 500.000.000 Man Arc" | 11% |
N°3 | The Stories of the Self-Proclaimed Straw Hat Grand Fleet | 10.7% |
N°4 | Ace's Great Blackbeard Search | 9.8% |
N°5 | Straw Hat's Separation Seria | 9.6% |
Yes | No | I have no opinion. |
---|---|---|
63% | 19% | 18% |
Yes | No | I have no opinion. |
---|---|---|
89.6% | 0.9% | 9.5% |
Yes | No |
---|---|
52.6% | 47.4% |
On Par with Pre-TS | Better than Pre-TS | Worse than Pre-TS |
---|---|---|
59.8% | 28.2% | 12% |
Paramecia | Zoan | Logia |
---|---|---|
28.9% | 8.6% | 62.5% |
Yes | No | Yes but Zoro will be stronger soon |
---|---|---|
9.8% | 60.3 | 29.9% |
Yes | No |
---|---|
31.5% | 68.5% |
Yes | No |
---|---|
49.6% | 50.4% |
Yes | No |
---|---|
76.4% | 23.6% |
Before fighting the WG | After Fighting the WG |
---|---|
71.1% | 28.9% |
Luffy | Zoro | Nami | Usopp | Sanji | Chopper | Robin | Franky | Brook | Jinbe |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
16.2% | 12.5% | 3.2% | 32.7% | 7.8% | 1.8% | 15% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
Yonko | Admiral |
---|---|
92.3% | 7.7% |
Yes | No |
---|---|
57.7% | 42.3% |
Yes | No |
---|---|
38.3% | 61.7% |
Yes | No |
---|---|
66.2% | 33.8% |
Yes | No |
---|---|
63.7% | 36.3% |
The strongest | Top 3 | Top 5 | Top 10 | Top 20 | < Top 20 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.4% | 15.4% | 32.5% | 37.5% | 11.9% | 1.4% |
Shanks | Mihawk |
---|---|
85.6%% | 14.4% |
Yes, he's stronger | Same level | Weaker |
---|---|---|
64.5% | 26.3 | 9.2% |
Yes | No |
---|---|
17.9% | 82.1% |
Yes | Yes in Marineford only | No | 2 at the same time | 3 at the same time |
---|---|---|---|---|
2.4% | 3.3% | 68.6% | 23% | 2.7% |
Rank | Character | % |
---|---|---|
N°1 | Vegapunk | 24.7% |
N°2 | Dragon | 18.8% |
N°3 | Shanks | 14.6% |
Yes | No |
---|---|
18.7% | 81.3% |
The strongest | Top 3 | Top 5 | Top 10 | < Top 10 |
---|---|---|---|---|
3% | 18.8% | 31.8% | 37.5% | 8.9% |
Kaido | Shanks | Blackbeard | Big Mom |
---|---|---|---|
43.1% | 26.4% | 26.3% | 4.2% |
Fight | % |
---|---|
Blackbeard vs Shanks | 55.5% |
Garp vs Rocks | 54.9% |
Garp vs Roger | 54.8% |
Mihawk vs Shanks | 52.6% |
Akainu vs Aokiji | 44.6% |
Arc | % |
---|---|
Elbaf | 79.8% |
Laugh Tales | 68.6% |
Vegapunk | 67.5% |
The Final War | 66.3% |
Red Hair Pirates | 38.2% |
Reason | % |
---|---|
More than 1 soul | 29.5% |
Weird Body | 29.7% |
Yami Yami | 35.2% |
Other | 5.6% |
Reason | % |
---|---|
SH+RA vs WG+Marines vs BB | 50.8% |
SH+RA vs WG+Marines | 37.6% |
SH vs RA vs WG | 6.8% |
Other | 4.8% |
Will Luffy die? | % |
---|---|
Yes | 28% |
No | 72% |
Answer | % |
---|---|
Yes | 10.2% |
No | 89.9% |
Answer | % |
---|
Answer | % |
---|---|
Yes | 91.9% |
No | 8.1% |
![]() | Completing the 2020 Bingo Challenge: Short Story Edition submitted by FarragutCircle to Fantasy [link] [comments] One of the rules of the Fantasy Bingo Reading Challenge is that you can read an anthology or collection for any of the squares. I’ve always been a fan of short fiction, so I’ve occasionally used this rule to complete my Bingo Card (I used three collections outside of the Five Short Stories square last year, for example). When planning my card for the 2020 Bingo, I noticed that several of the squares fit quite well for some of the collections and anthologies I had (a Star Trek anthology for Exploration, books with colors or numbers in their names, etc.). “What if…” I wondered, “…I can do it for every square?” Thus, my project is born: Complete my Bingo card using only books of short stories, following all the other rules of Bingo. I did not repeat a single author from one square to another, and I even made sure not to repeat editors, either. Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair! A brief aside before we start, some terms I use that some may not be familiar to some:
Planning: The hardest thing about this was the original planning, as several books I thought would be an easy match for the square didn’t work because another anthology I planned to use already included that author, so I had to dig a bit deeper to find something that didn’t repeat any authors. Also, in past Bingo Challenges, my cards are usually quite fluid as I shift books around throughout the year. Because of all the authors I was juggling, I couldn’t easily do that (though it was vastly easier to do with collections instead of anthologies, for obvious reasons). Numbers: For this card, I officially read 32 books for the 25 squares: One of those books was quite short, so I read an additional three to meet the length requirement. For the original Five Short Stories square, I decided to be obnoxious and read five collections. These 32 books included 1 short novel (included in one of the collections), 8 novellas, 106 novelettes, 498 short stories, and 3 poems for a total of at least 2,739,975 words (the rough equivalent of reading the first nine novels of The Wheel of Time). I read 189 different authors. In addition to the 32 books above, I read 15 “pre-Bingo” books—books I felt I needed to read to be able to read the anthology or collection I actually used for my Bingo Card. Fifteen of the 32 books were ones I already owned. Nine books I checked out from the library. Five books I bought specific for Bingo, and three books were free (gifts or free online). 1. Novel Translated from Its Original Language: There Once Lived a Woman Who Tried to Kill Her Neighbor's Baby: Scary Fairy Tales by Ludmilla Petrushevskaya (reprint collection)
Frozen Fairy Tales edited by Kate Wolford (original anthology)
Ingathering: The Complete People Stories by Zenna Henderson (short story cycle, 1 original to this book)
The Book of the Dead edited by Jared Shurin (original anthology)
Life Within Parole, Volume 1 by RoAnna Sylver (collection, mix of reprint and original)
Ghost Stories of an Antiquary by M. R. James (collection, mix of reprint and original)
No Limits edited by Peter David (original anthology)
Everything Change: An Anthology of Climate Fiction edited by Manjana Milkoreit, Meredith Martinez, & Joey Eschrich (original anthology)
The King in Yellow by Robert W. Chambers (original collection)
Sooner or Later Everything Falls into the Sea by Sarah Pinsker (reprint collection, 1 original to this book)
In the Stars I'll Find You & Other Tales of Futures Fantastic by Bradley P. Beaulieu (mostly reprint collection)
Not the End of the World by Kate Atkinson (short story cycle)
Shadows & Tall Trees 8 edited by Michael Kelly (original anthology)
Sideways Stories from Wayside School; Wayside School is Falling Down; Wayside School Gets a Little Stranger; and Wayside School Beneath the Cloud of Doom by Louis Sachar (short story cycles)
Ex Libris: Stories of Librarians, Libraries, and Lore edited by Paula Guran (reprint anthology)
Explaining Cthulhu to Grandma and Other Stories by Alex Shvartsman (mostly reprint collection)
Alien Artifacts edited by Joshua Palmatier & Patricia Bray (original anthology)
Skin Folk by Nalo Hopkinson (collection, mix of reprint and original)
The Very Best of Charles de Lint by Charles de Lint (reprint collection)
Nine White Horses: Nine Tales of Horses and Magic by Judith Tarr (reprint collection)
Once Upon a Kiss: 17 Romantic Faerie Tales published by Anthea Sharp (original anthology)
No True Way: All-New Tales of Valdemar edited by Mercedes Lackey (original anthology)
Eerie Archives, Volume 1 edited by Archie Goodwin (original comic book anthology)
Retief! by Keith Laumer (reprint collection)
Sometime last year after touting one short story or another to my friends, I said, “Oh, I don’t think I read *that* much short fiction,” and they all looked at me funny for some reason. Oh. Never mind. I get it now. All joking aside, I’ve read SF/F magazines off and on growing up, and I always enjoyed the occasional Year’s Best Science Fiction anthology from Gardner Dozois, and Robert Silverberg’s Legends anthologies were rather formative to my growth as a fantasy reader (that’s where I read George R.R. Martin and Robin Hobb for the first time). Some of my favorite writers have done amazing short stories (in fact, I think I like Alastair Reynolds better at the short length than the novel; witness my love for his story “Zima Blue”!). Even if you don’t read more than the usual five short stories for the Bingo Challenge, please consider branching out! I hope I’ve shown with my own card how much variety is out there. If you’re not sure where to start, your favorite author may have some short stories of their own, either in an anthology or one of their own collections. Mary Robinette Kowal is one of my favorites, and I loved her collection Word Puppets. If they’re prolific enough, they may have a “Best of” book, like The Best of Connie Willis or The Very Best of Kate Elliott. Trying one of the Year’s Best anthologies I mention under #13, Published in 2020, is also a fun way to explore short fiction. And even though I didn’t read any for my Bingo Challenge, there are tons of SF/F magazines out there to read from on a daily, weekly, monthly, bimonthly, or quarterly schedule. My personal recommendation is for Asimov’s SF, FIYAH, and Fantasy & Science Fiction for subscription-only options, and places like Clarkesworld, Uncanny, Fireside, and Tor.com for free online stories. There are also some great magazines/sites like Beneath Ceaseless Skies and Daily Science Fiction. Looking at award lists is a fun way to get started, as most of the major awards also have short fiction categories. Find out where they were published and try out a magazine issue or an anthology. I’ll end this with the following:
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![]() | *** Registration is Now Open until 9/15 for the latest Live PvP tournament, organized by u/LongTimeGaming. There is no entry fee and everyone is guaranteed at least five rounds of combat! Please PM him or myself for details on how to register! *** submitted by RedKnightRG to wotv_ffbe [link] [comments] For today's entry I want to discuss one of the stronger live PvP strategies currently floating around the meta, particularly at the higher player ranks or with whales smurfing at lower ranks: The Medi (Mediena) Bomb. What is a Medi Bomb?Let's start with an example formation:The non-Medi options are pretty flexible. One of the Mag VCs should be on Medi not House B for extra mag power. And some idea of what AGI you should be able to see (90+) and other stats: My medi isn't close to tip top shape - I never use her in live PvP! Mediena's LB, Cosmo Plume, is well known throughout the community for its power, wide AoE range, and immediate availability. Coupled with Shukuchi Medi has a threat range of NINE squares (movement of 4 plus maximum effective range of 5) and so a forward deployed Medi can reach all possible starting locations except for two on the current PvP map: Initial Deployment - Medi forward and centered. From forward center Plume Medi can hit all possible squares except the back two corners - Cid and Mont are about to have a bad day! Once properly setup the execution of this strategy is as brutal as it is simple: Medi runs forward and tries to OHKO as many of the enemy team as possible. The remaining units in the Medi Bomb formation exist to provide clean-up in the event that enough of the enemy team survives to take out Medi. Medi Bomb Breakdown - SynergiesThe Medi bomb, as it currently exists, comprises three major components: a Shukuchi Mediena, Agility, and as much Magic/Magic Attack equipment and VCs as can be mustered together. If you take away any of these components the win probability of the strategy plummets. Let's examine each in turn:
Responses to the Medi Bomb - Sample FormationsSo here are some sample formations I whipped up - note the screenshots are composites from my main account so levels and etc. are not going to be optimal. There are many variations possible, these are just starting points! Option 1 - Go Faster than Medi Gunner Girls that are faster than a Medi Bomb are close to a guaranteed win! The hardest counter to Medi bomb is a Fred that's faster than her - A properly kitted Fred can OHKO a Medi with sharpshoot off the bat without any external buffs. Because Medi + AGI VC is always faster then a Fred without, you will need to put AGI cards of your own on top of your Fred to ensure you go before the enemy Medi does. Option 2 - Be able to survive the Plume This is the second picture here - the first one had an impossible setup for Rain due to my photoshopping (I don't own Rain). There are of course characters that can survive a plume, even a plume from a super whaled out Medi. Rain is one of these - he's a magic tank off the bat and he has elemental advantage to Medi. Ayaka can stand your viktora back up post plume while Rain can OHKO the Medi. Option 3 - Be able to Evade the Plume Miranda is a super useful utility placeholder for these formations Vinera is pretty popular in live pvp these days due to her combination of speed, power, and high evade. She is essentially unhittable to teams that haven't geared with guaranteed hit options or stacked as much ACC as they can. I don't have a leveled up Vinera to test the above combination for exact hit percentages but an unbuffed Vinera should have about 150-200 evade depending on cards. Not exactly easy to hit with a plume! A Brief History of the Medi BombFinally, the changes in popularity to the Medi Bomb through time exemplifies the essential elements that define the 'meta' in live PvP: the outcome to nearly every match is a binary win or loss. Any team that is slightly better than another will win almost all the time holding all over elements equal. Medi's evolution in live pvp shows this perfectly.In the first weeks of WotV, Medi bombs were one of the most common formations available. Medi was I think the fastest launch character and once she hit level 40 she could OHKO most other units common at the time that were also at level 40 (Mont, Sterne, etc.). This meant that Medi could just run up and drop the other team. Lots and lots of Medi v Medi engagements were happening and Medi's dominance in PvE and PvP was often remarked on by jokes or commentary here and elsewhere. Flash forward to the FFT event or so and Medi bombs disappeared from competitive play. Two things happened: Frederika and increasing toughness of teams. Fred, as I said before, is a hard counter to Medi as long as she goes first and at this stage in the game almost no one had high AGI VCs so Freds melted Medis off the live PvP scene. A secondary effect was that everyone was getting to level 99 on their mains and starting to amass TMRs - Medi stopped being able to OHKO units. Medi Bombs stayed quiet for the months following FFT until Platinum Rod came out, then whales with +15% AGI off the House Beolve card could go first in most engagements and do enough damage to OHKO broad swaths of units. Now with FFT2 almost done plenty of dolphins or even minnows/f2p willing to proc 5-6 whimseys per day can have their 15% AGI cards so Medi bombs are more accessible. Essentially, the meta is an unstable equilibrium defined by a complex set of inputs and that binary output of winning/losing. As soon as Medi is one AGI slower then her hard counter *and that hard counter is common* she becomes worthless. Same with the tipping point between OHKO and survival. Right now medi bombs are fast and powerful - therefore viable against many team comps. Well that wraps up today's post - this one turned out to be longer than I was expecting. Let me know if its too long in the comments and if you have any suggestions for future topics that you'd like a detailed breakdown on please let me know! ------------------------------------------------ WotV PvP Tactics & Mentality is an irregularly updated series of posts about the most neglected aspect of WotV: Live PvP If you liked this post, feel read to my previous entries in the series:
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Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans.
Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February.
In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday.
Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
“The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways [market] action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.”
Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. 19.
Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved.
“I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding.
“What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.”
It’s the economy
Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. Democrats have sought a $3 trillion spending package, and Republicans in the Senate offered a $1 trillion package. They could not reach a compromise, including on a $600 weekly payment to individuals on unemployment which expired July 31.
President Donald Trump has tried to fill the gap with executive orders to provide extra benefits to those on unemployment, but the $300 federal payment and $100 from states may take some time to reach individuals, as the processing varies by state. He has also issued an order instructing the Treasury to temporarily defer collection of payroll taxes from individuals making up to $104,000.
“I think in August and September, there will be a lot of Ws, if there’s not more help here,” said Zandi, referring to an economic recovery that retrenches from a V shape before heading higher again. “It’s clearly perplexing. It may take the stock market to say we’re not going to get what we expect, and sell off and light a fire.”
Zandi said it could come to a situation like 2008, where the stock market sold off sharply before Congress would agree to a program that helped financial companies.
“We need a TARP moment to get these guys to help. Maybe if the claims tick higher and the August employment numbers are soft, given the president is focused on the stock market, that might be what it takes to get them back to the table in earnest,” he said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program that helped rescue banks during the financial crisis.
He ultimately expects a package of about $1.5 trillion to be approved in September.
The lack of funding for state and local governments could result in more layoffs, as they struggle with their current 2021 budgets, Zandi said. Already 1.3 million public sector jobs have been lost since February, and there will be more layoffs and more programs and projects cancelled. The impact will hit contractors and other businesses that provide services to local governments.
“The multipliers on state and local government are among the highest of any form of support, so if you don’t provide it, it’s going to ripple through the economy pretty fast,” he said.
Economists expect to see a softening in consumer spending in August with the more than 28 million Americans on unemployment benefits as of mid-July no longer receiving any supplemental pay.
“The real irony is things are shaping up that September is going to be a bad month, and that’s going to show up in all the data in October,” Zandi said. “They are really taking a chance on this election by not acting.”
4 Charts That Will Amaze You
The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever.
From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:
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They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.
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After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.
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As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.
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“It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”
When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch
US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.
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Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.
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The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.
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Retail Sales Rock to New Highs
At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point.
Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!
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While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.
100 Days of Gains
Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
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While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!
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B.I.G. Tips - New Highs In Sight
Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high.
While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.
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Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.
- NOTABLE TICKERS REMOVED DUE TO STOCKS AUTO MOD
Monday 8.17.20 Before Market Open:
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Monday 8.17.20 After Market Close:
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Tuesday 8.18.20 Before Market Open:
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Tuesday 8.18.20 After Market Close:
(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)
Wednesday 8.19.20 Before Market Open:
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Wednesday 8.19.20 After Market Close:
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Thursday 8.20.20 Before Market Open:
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Thursday 8.20.20 After Market Close:
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Friday 8.21.20 Before Market Open:
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Friday 8.21.20 After Market Close:
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Walmart Inc. $132.60
Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $134.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.51% with revenue increasing by 2.99%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $120.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,381 contracts of the $135.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.
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NVIDIA Corp. $462.56
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $3.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.83 to $2.06 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.25% with revenue increasing by 41.53%. The stock has drifted higher by 31.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% above its 200 day moving average of $293.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,787 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.
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Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $253.97
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $21.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.74% with revenue increasing by 26.22%. Short interest has increased by 30.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% above its 200 day moving average of $211.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,935 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.
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JD.com, Inc. $62.06
JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:50 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $26.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.00% with revenue increasing by 23.25%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,799 contracts of the $62.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.
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Home Depot, Inc. $280.55
Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $31.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.03% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 39.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% above its 200 day moving average of $229.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,323 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.
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Lowe's Companies, Inc. $154.34
Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.93 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.28% with revenue increasing by 1.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $117.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,994 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.
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Target Corp. $136.53
Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue increasing by 4.77%. Short interest has decreased by 36.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.0% above its 200 day moving average of $115.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,479 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.
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Sea Limited $126.50
Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.29% with revenue increasing by 136.16%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 91.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 98.1% above its 200 day moving average of $63.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,000 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.7% move in recent quarters.
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Niu Technologies $20.82
Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $88.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.00% with revenue increasing by 13.97%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 129.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.3% above its 200 day moving average of $10.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.
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BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $41.48
BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.15% with revenue increasing by 8.79%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.7% above its 200 day moving average of $28.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,119 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.
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However, the binary options market that you are most likely to be familiar with has a much shorter history seeing a supersonic rise beginning in the mid 2000's.. Over time, binary options trading has evolved as a less-complicated way of trading share options. Binary options have been around for quite some time. They are now recognized in some countries as viable financial instruments. If you ever wondered about their history and how they came into existence this timeline will bring you up to speed. Binary.com is an award-winning online trading provider that helps its clients to trade on financial markets through binary options and CFDs. Trading binary options and CFDs on Synthetic Indices is classified as a gambling activity. Remember that gambling can be addictive – please play responsibly. Learn more about Responsible Trading. Some ... The history of binary options can be traced to 2008 when it was first introduced publicly as a tradable asset on the Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE). 2008 was a year that will not be forgotten in human history. That was the year that the cards came crashing in the financial markets, as the subprime mortgage crisis in the US triggered the ... The second chapter explains what binary options are and history behind them. The third chapter describes the choice of inputs (type of asset, investment, expiry time and variety of trade) available to a trader before entering a trade.
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